Meta researcher @tmychow estimates transformative AI could push real interest rates into the high single digits, with 30% GDP growth implying far higher:
"In the paper we talk about this idea of transformative AI being 30% GDP growth. Real GDP growth is somewhere between 2 to 3%
AGI and the EMH: what does the market tell us about AI timelines?
TLDR: Markets are not putting much probability on the development of transformative AI (aligned or unaligned!) in the next 30-50 years – as evidenced by low *real interest rates*
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7Lycgt…
SITUATION DETECTED: Amazon will buy an additional 2 million Nvidia GPUs, on top of the 1 million they announced they would be installing in March as part of their AWS data center buildout, per Bloomberg.
Meta researcher @tmychow says ~4.5% real interest rates would be compelling evidence that markets are pricing in transformative AI:
"In our paper we find that a 1 percentage point increase in growth should track to a 1.4 percentage point increase in real interest rates."
"If we
AGI and the EMH: what does the market tell us about AI timelines?
TLDR: Markets are not putting much probability on the development of transformative AI (aligned or unaligned!) in the next 30-50 years – as evidenced by low *real interest rates*
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7Lycgt…
Meta researcher @tmychow explains why an AGI boom or AGI doom should both send real interest rates higher:
"You can think about there being two scenarios under AGI. One is where we get really transformative economic growth, and people expect their incomes will rise in the
AGI and the EMH: what does the market tell us about AI timelines?
TLDR: Markets are not putting much probability on the development of transformative AI (aligned or unaligned!) in the next 30-50 years – as evidenced by low *real interest rates*
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7Lycgt…
