There's some serious volatility we're seeing right now. Where do we see VIX in 1, 2, 4+ weeks? I'm mainly waiting for new sanctions to hit Russia from the west. China's aid to Russia, should there be any, will dictate how effective these new sanctions will be.
Welcome to The Chop. This is the first installment in what will become a regularly featured post here on . Let’s talk about the market.
Last week the $SPY saw a net move of about +1.6%. Mid-week it was up around 3%, but about half of that was given back by the close on Friday. Overall the week’s move was a bit less than the 2.5% the options market expected, and IV continued to contract with the VIX settling around 23 after surging to near 40 on January 24th.
This week’s expected move for the $SPY looks to be about 2%, while $QQQ and $DIA options are pricing in around 2.6% and 1.7% moves respectively.
Since January 24th, which marked the lows of the recent sell-off, the VIX has contracted by more than 40%. Meanwhile the S&P is up about 7% over the same period. But IV remains above its historical average range, so the market still doesn’t seem fully convinced by the recent bounce.
This week’s earnings outlook
Tuesday:
Pfizer $PFE - Expected Move: 5.3%
British Petroleum $BP - Expected Move: 4.2%
Peloton $PTON - Expected Move: 22%
Chipotle $CMG - Expected Move: 5.9%
Wednesday:
Disney $DIS - Expected Move: 5.6%
Uber $UBER - Expected Move: 11.3%
Thursday:
Twitter $TWTR / Expected Move: 13.5%
Cloudfare $NET / Expected Move: 12.3%
Zillow $Z / Expected Move: 12%
