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Much has been said about a "downwardly-mobile educated class" powering progressive candidates, and Michigan makes it about as clear as it gets.
Ryan McComb
@ryanjmccomb
Data Science Fellow @VoteHub | elections | onion futures advocate | 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 | generally assume my causal inferences are wrong
- After a significant polling miss, TSPI says it took respondents who had already picked Jay Collins and switched them to James Fishback because his number in their data "did not align with our read of the race."
- Provisionals broke 35-26 for Dukes, pushing his lead to 97. That is a wrap in Pennsylvania's 12th. Brandon Dukes (D) flips a seat Trump carried by 18 points in 2024.
- A Dukes win looks likely, and this district is seeing a roughly 19-point shift from 2024, but the race is not yet callable with provisional ballots still outstanding. We are waiting to see how those break over the coming days.
