You’re Starting From the Wrong Frame

When I sit down with buyers for the first time, there’s one phrase that comes up almost every time.

“I just don’t want to get into a bidding war.”

I understand the instinct. It’s a terrible word. It feels chaotic, adversarial, and out of control. It suggests winners and losers and something to avoid at all costs. But that framing is working against you before you even get started.

What You’re Actually Walking Into

In the Inner East Bay, especially in spring 2026, what we are dealing with is not a war. It’s a multiple offer environment.

That’s not semantics. It’s a shift in how you experience the process.

Across North Oakland, Berkeley, Albany, El Cerrito, and into parts of Richmond and El Sobrante, demand is outpacing supply. For homes that offer a walkable lifestyle with access to shops, coffee, and parks, it is routine to see seven or more offers.

Once you accept that, the question changes.

Not “How do I avoid this?”

But “How do I understand it?”

Why the List Price Feels So Wrong

A lot of the frustration starts with pricing. For decades, many homes in these neighborhoods have been listed below their likely market value. Not always, but often enough that it shapes expectations.

The knee jerk reaction is to assume the listing agent is trying to create a bidding war. That reaction doesn’t help you. A better move is to get curious and look at what the market is actually telling you.

What the Data Actually Says

When I prepare a client to write an offer, I work to remove any emotional attachment to the list price almost immediately. Getting anchored to that number and feeling tension for every dollar above it is an easy way to create stress. Because the list price is not the value of the home. It’s a positioning tool. A number chosen by the listing agent based on their style and their read of the market. In the Inner East Bay, it’s deliberately set below where the home is likely to sell.

I’m far less interested in the list price than I am in the pattern behind it: the relationship between list price and sale price in the comparables; price per square foot, but also how that number was positioned at list and where it ultimately landed.

And in the Inner East Bay, that analysis is rarely simple. The housing stock is older. Homes on the same block can span multiple decades. Condition varies. Layout matters. Deferred maintenance matters.

Two homes with the same square footage can perform very differently based on flow, light, and usability.

Price per square foot has its place, but it is not the whole story.

A Quick Example

Recently I analyzed a home listed at $799,000.

The comparable sales made things clear very quickly. Nearby homes over the prior month were closing roughly 40 percent over their list prices. The subject property was priced right in line with that pattern.

After adjusting for condition, location, and layout, it was clear that a competitive offer would likely land around $1.2 million and would need to compete against a large number of buyers.

That’s not a war.

That’s data.

Where Control Actually Lives

When you approach it this way, the experience changes.

You’re no longer reacting emotionally to a list price that feels misleading. You’re making an informed decision based on how the market is actually behaving. And that’s where control comes from.

The Part Most Buyers Miss

There’s another layer here that matters and doesn’t get enough attention.

Appraisers work from past and current data. They don’t project forward. But markets like ours move forward anyway.

If prices are rising month over month, even incrementally, then it follows that a buyer today may need to pay more than a buyer did last month.

The gap is that an appraisal may not fully reflect that movement yet.

So if you’re writing a strong offer, especially one without contingencies, you need to understand the potential gap between the appraised value and your purchase price and be prepared for it.

Language Shapes the Outcome

My goal is not just to help clients win a house. It’s to help them feel grounded in the process. Calm. Clear. In control of their decisions.

We never use the term bidding war.

We talk about data. We talk about patterns. We talk about demand, condition, and how a specific home fits into the broader market.

In a low supply, high demand environment, your mindset is an asset. Don’t degrade it.

Call It What It Is

If you’re in a position to buy a home in the Inner East Bay, that’s something to recognize. From there, the work is not to avoid the process, but to understand it and move through it with intention.

Call it what it is: A multiple offer environment.

And then, let’s get to work.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: Eerily Calm Week For Mortgage Rates.

To hear Faramarz speak in his own words on an April 20 podcast 🎧Click here to listen to “Mortgage Market Reality Check”.

Share

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

Real Estate Commissions After August 2024: More Transparent, Not Cheaper

The post-August 2024 commission structure has changed how fees are discussed but not necessarily how much gets paid. Since the full implementation of the new industry rules at the start of 2025, we have been operating under a framework the lawsuits told us was ostensibly designed to save consumers money while creating greater transparency.

On the transparency front, that is mostly true. However, the idea that this would lower costs is not what I am seeing in the Inner East Bay. What I am seeing is more paperwork, more explicit negotiation, more confusion, and in many cases no real savings. In fact, we are often seeing the opposite.

What Changed on Paper

Before the settlement changes took hold, the commission structure was simple. The seller dictated the total commission for the transaction within the listing agreement. That number typically landed somewhere between 5% and 6%. From there, the seller would allocate a portion to the buyer’s broker, usually 2.5%.

The buyer’s broker (aka agent) compensation was advertised clearly in the MLS (Multiple Listing Service). There was very little negotiation around it in practice. Today, that structure has shifted. Sellers no longer set the total commission for both sides, and no buyer’s broker commission is advertised in Seller’s now only negotiate the fee to their own listing brokerage.

This shifts the conversation in a subtle but important way. Instead of discussing a 6% total cost, the conversation centers on a smaller number such as 3%.

The Psychology Shift No One Talks About

We have essentially moved from a wholesale model to a retail model. A seller who is used to hearing 6% now hears 3% and it feels like a massive win, depending entirely on the presentation bias of their agent. At the same time, a listing agent who may previously have accepted 2.5% as their “share” might now push for 3% because it sounds more reasonable when standing alone.

It is the same reason retailers price items at $9.99 instead of $10.00. At 3%, the sticker shock is muted. The fee did not go away. It just stopped being a single conversation.

Where It Gets Sticky for Buyers

Early national data from 2025 and 2026 confirms that my local observations are part of a broader trend. Reports from Redfin show that buyer agent commissions have remained remarkably “sticky,” even ticking up in some markets after an initial period of volatility. Furthermore, joint analysis from the Consumer Federation of America suggests that the anticipated cost savings for the public have largely not materialized.

On the buyer side, the shift is even more significant. Buyers are now required to sign a buyer broker agreement (BRBC) before they tour a property privately, and by the time they submit an offer at the very latest. These agreements spell out exactly what the buyer owes their brokerage. In the Inner East Bay, I am seeing many more of these agreements coming in at 3% in recent months.

The “Don’t Worry, the Seller Pays” Problem

A buyer clicks “tour this home” on a platform and gets connected to an agent. Their emotional driver is seeing the house, but they are often asked to sign a contract to get in the door. In that moment, they may have just committed to a 3% fee for the next three months without fully grasping the weight of that signature.

The common reassurance is that the seller will cover it. They might. But the buyer’s signature puts the final responsibility for buyer broker compensation squarely on the buyer. If the seller is not willing to pay it, or only willing to cover a portion, the balance rests with the buyer.

For first-time buyers, especially those operating with a low downpayment of 3.5% this creates a real hurdle. For widely used low downpayment loans such as VA and FHA loans, even though guidelines now allow buyers to pay their own agents, those fees, outside of being covered by the seller, cannot be rolled into the loan.

It is true that sellers working with a good agent understand they will likely be asked to cover buyer broker compensation in a purchase agreement. But that does not mean they are indifferent to the number. If two similar offers come in and one buyer is asking for 2.5% while the other is asking for 3%, all other terms being equal, which one do you think has the edge?

If a buyer has to pull that difference from their down payment, it can impact loan qualification, pricing power, and overall leverage.

Given the opportunity to control their own side of the commission, both sides are pushing for the best outcome they can get. Buyer’s agents are asking for 3% with greater frequency, in part because they can, and in part because many are now paying significant splits or lead costs to the platforms generating those connections. Listing agents, meanwhile, are often holding firm at 3% or more.

When you put those together, total commissions in many cases appear to have crept up by about 0.5% compared to the old “standard” of 5% or 5.5%.

The system is certainly more transparent but the promise of savings is not. There is no longer any mystery about who is getting paid. But transparency alone does not reduce cost. It simply changes how that cost is negotiated.

Again, my observations might not be a good fit for every metro but they accurately reflect what I’m seeing in the Inner East Bay.

Sources

• Consumer Federation of America: Evaluation of Real Estate Commission Rules and Market Trends (2025-2026).

• Redfin News: Buyer’s Agent Commission Rates and Housing Market Impact Report (Q1 2026).

• Department of Veterans Affairs: Circular 26-24-14, Temporary Authority for Veteran-Paid Brokerage Fees.

• National Urban League & CFA Joint Study: Impact of Real Estate Transparency on Underserved Markets.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

There was a brief stretch where it felt like the market might be settling into something more predictable.

Rates dipped. Activity picked up. Conversations that had been on hold started moving again.

And then, just as quickly, the tone changed.

In this episode of The Mostly Real Estate Podcast, I sit down with Faramarz Moeen-Ziai of FMZ Loans. It has been about a year since our last conversation, and the timing is important.

We get into what just happened in the mortgage market, why that short window mattered, and what may already be working its way through the system now. We also talk about what could shape the next phase of the housing market, especially here in the East Bay.

There is a mix here of practical insight and bigger picture thinking. Some of it is immediate. Some of it is just starting to show up.

If you’re trying to understand where things might be heading, it is worth a listen.

🎧Click here to listen to the full episode or listen wherever you get your podcasts.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

For a more dynamic view of this post please click here to view it on our website.

April 19, Sunday Open Homes List.

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.

What I’m seeing in the market this week.

At last, a brush with normalcy, or close to it. Uncertainty still hangs over the market, but across Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond we’re finally seeing a familiar spring pattern emerge, with inventory inching up week over week as the season builds, just as the charts below reflect. That said, not every East Bay market is cooperating. Pinole and Hercules are moving in the opposite direction, with inventory slipping week over week. Open houses for single family homes are picking up, while the condo segment tells a quieter story, likely because many units that have sat for two months or more are no longer being actively promoted. Even with the recent gains, overall inventory remains tight at 32% below this time last year, and with “Coming Soon” activity fading, there may not be much additional supply waiting to hit the market.

All of this is playing out against a backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, driving oil prices higher, rattling financial markets, and making mortgage rate predictions even more of a moving target than usual. And yet, on the ground, the story hasn’t budged. Inventory remains exceptionally tight, demand is still strong, and that imbalance continues to put a firm floor under prices, even in the face of rate pressure.

Micro market note: El Sobrante is waking up. Listings are climbing while contracts are slowing, creating a rare pocket of opportunity for buyers. With solid value and relative affordability, this is one of the few places right now where you can move with a bit more leverage. If it’s been on your radar, this may be your moment. Reach out and let’s talk strategy.

Please read more on rates below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.

Older listings that have been passed over and are now sitting represent real opportunities for buyers. This is where leverage lives right now. If you’re curious, reach out and let’s dig in. As always, see below for a closer look at market dynamics across our three key Inner East Bay cities, Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

I’ve included last year’s active listing counts alongside this year’s for Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond to show how inventory has changed year over year.

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

Mortgage rates around 6% to 6.5% are likely the norm for 2026, which is actually an improvement over the past couple of years. The key is that today’s buyers are not locked in forever. If rates fall in the future, homeowners can refinance and lower their payments. As rates eventually come down, home values tend to rise. At the same time, each monthly payment builds equity. When you combine rising values, loan paydown, and the option to refinance, homeowners often see meaningful wealth growth over time. This is one of the main reasons homeowners tend to build significantly more wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.

For more detail, see the “Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates” section below.

Oakland accounts for 56% of all Sunday open house listings across the Inner East Bay, consistent with the 56% two month average. That share underscores Oakland’s size and density, and the fact that most transactions in the Inner East Bay happen there.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price for a specific type of single family home over the past two weeks, compared to this time last year. Days on Market (DOM) is included because longer selling times tend to align with softer year over year values.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

The 2 month chart has been approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to come to market than in March while homes continue to go contract at a steady pace.. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’m also seeing renewed momentum in Rockridge and Temescal, with demand beginning to rebound after a quieter stretch in 2025.

Inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty are, for now, being tempered by a simple but powerful dynamic of constrained supply meeting strong demand.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Similar to the Berkeley Hills, fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 354

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 495

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,144,162 (31 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,164,103 (27 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Berkeley’s market has been intensely competitive so far this year, with multiple offers the norm for well priced, well located, and well presented homes. It is increasingly a tale of two markets: In the Flats, including central, north, and northwest Berkeley, prices are commonly landing between $1,200 and $1,400+ or more per square foot*, while in the Hills, particularly within Very High Fire Hazard Zones, values drop closer to around +/-$750 per square foot, creating a clear divide. Demand in the Flats remains relentless, and after a March dip in inventory when it should have been rising, April is bringing a return to something more seasonal, with listings building and buyers taking a bit more time to commit. The pattern is clear: the best homes still fly off the shelf, while everything else lingers, particularly in the Hills, where the pause prior to homes going under contract is more pronounced. *It’s also worth noting that price per square foot typically declines as home size increases, with the highest value generally concentrated in the first 1000 square feet.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 63

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 87

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,693,250 (10 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $2,044,500 (16 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year - 48% Y-o-Y. Similar to Berkeley, the graph highlights an extraordinary dynamic: active inventory declining in March when it should have been rising. April is bringing a return to something more seasonal, with listings building and buyers taking a bit more time to commit. Even with the increase, inventory is still below March levels, and the pattern persists where the most desirable homes sell quickly, followed by a slowdown as remaining listings take longer to find buyers.

That’s reflected in the data too: Average Days on Market (DOM) for Richmond has remained above 80 for the past month.

Note: Buyers are jumping quickly on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like Richmond North & East, where one property received 18 offers, and The Annex, where a listing received 24 offers, and home values are climbing past anything we saw last year.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 73

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 139

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $869,419 (25 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $701,857 (62 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 75 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 60. That’s an improvement on last week though and considerably better than a couple of months ago. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Due to inventory constraints this year it seems that the Inner East Bay single family home market has generally hit its floor and logically that should mean the floor for condos is imminent.

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in late-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, April 19: Let’s break it down

Of the 264 single family residential homes that have an open house 4% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the 114 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 8% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming or mispriced listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 44 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has moved down from the high water mark 2 weeks ago of 50. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 43. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

How’s That Working Out?

In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates on a 30yr fixed rate mortgage briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict with Iran and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5% in the past month but we are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5% for 2026, actually ending at 6.3% this week. The swings along the way have been significant. Continued conflict may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices continue to climb.

What drives rates?

Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: Mortgage Rates Ended the Week at Their Lowest Levels in a Month - But Not as Low as Expected. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”. I have recorded a new podcast episode with Faramarz and will release it this week.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend!

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

The (understandable) Seller delusion

Every seller wants credit for the money they’ve spent on their home.

And I get it. You write the checks, you live through the inconvenience, you see the “after” and it feels like progress.

But here’s where things go sideways.

Not all money spent on a home increases its value.

Let’s say I walk into a house and it needs about $50,000 worth of work.

Nothing flashy, no capital improvements. No walls moved. No chef’s kitchen.

Just the stuff that’s been quietly waiting its turn for the past 10 to 30 or more years. Damage from a leaking toilet under the house, degraded plumbing fixtures, a roof nearing the end of its life, degraded fascia boards or barge rafter tails. Siding and trim damage from weather. Peeling paint. Tired or dangerous electrical components. A furnace on borrowed time. Deferred everything.

The logic following on from taking care of deferred maintenance at time of sale can often feel like
“We’ve put $50,000 into the home, so the home is worth $50,000 more.”

That’s not how the market sees it.

The market sees it as:
“You’ve brought the house back to where it should have been all along. It’s now properly maintained. You’ve caught up”.

Paying the certainty tax

Deferred maintenance is like carrying a balance on a credit card you forgot about.

It doesn’t show up as a line item in your head, but buyers see it immediately. And worse, they don’t just subtract the cost to fix it. They might discount it further because of uncertainty, inconvenience, and risk.

So a $50,000 deferral often becomes a $75,000 or more compromise in what a buyer is willing to pay.

When you catch up on deferred maintenance before going to market, you’re not adding value, you’re simply delivering a properly maintained property. The deferred maintenance you’ve comfortably lived with can cause others to see the house as a “fixer”.

The five year strategy to maintain your home

If you want a simple way to understand deferred maintenance, here’s a good rule of thumb:

Get a pest inspection every five years.

Not because you’re worried about termites taking the house down tomorrow, but because pest reports are one of the clearest windows into how a home is aging, and a good pest inspector will inform you about other failing systems such as a foundation, drainage, or roof issue.

Most of what shows up isn’t dramatic.

It’s early-stage stuff. Minor dry rot. Moisture intrusion. Failing sealants. Wood-to-soil contact. Small conditions that are easy to ignore.

And that’s exactly the point.

Deferred maintenance doesn’t usually show up all at once. It builds quietly over time.

Handled early, many of these repairs are relatively inexpensive. Left alone, they stack, spread, and eventually become the kind of $50,000 conversation we started with.

A five-year inspection cycle isn’t about perfection. It’s about staying current.

Because the difference between a well-maintained home and a catch-up project is rarely one big event. It’s whether small issues were addressed before they became big ones.

In other words, routine maintenance isn’t just upkeep. It’s what prevents you from mistaking catch-up work for an upgrade later.

Objections vs desires

Now let’s talk about what actually counts as an upgrade.

An upgrade is something that makes a buyer want the house more than the alternatives.

Not something that makes the house merely acceptable.

There’s a difference.

Each person looking to buy a home is operating from a place of feeling and emotion, not just data. Upgrades change the emotional reaction. Deferred maintenance fixes prevent negative reactions.

A reimagined kitchen that changes how the home lives. Opening up space and light. Creating indoor-outdoor flow where there wasn’t any. Thoughtful design that feels intentional and current.

That’s where buyers lean in.

Replacing a worn roof, fixing drainage, updating wiring, repairing dry rot, servicing tired systems—these are all necessary. But they don’t create excitement. They remove objections. They remove hesitation.

The dangers of misunderstanding

Here’s where this really matters.

Sellers who believe handling deferred maintenance equals a value beyond neighborhood comps tend to overprice.

They think:
“We’ve invested this money, so we need to get it back.”

But the market doesn’t reward you for catching up. It rewards you for standing out.

The price of admission

Across the inner East Bay, the winning formula is pretty consistent.

Handle the deferred maintenance upfront. Disclose everything. Remove uncertainty. Present a clean, dialed-in home to inspire buyer confidence and trust.

That’s what allows buyers to write strong, often non-contingent offers.

Not because you upgraded the home.

Because you eliminated doubt and hesitation. Hesitation in a fast paced, high-scrutiny market like ours is problematic.

A better way to think about it:

Maintenance is the price of admission. Upgrades are what get you applause.

One gets you into the game, the other changes it.

It’s never too early

If you’re getting ready to sell and wondering where to spend money, this is a conversation worth having early. Not all dollars are equal, and knowing the difference can change your outcome by far more than the cost of the work itself.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

For a more dynamic view of this post please click here to view it on our website.

April 12, Sunday Open Homes List.

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.

What I’m seeing in the market this week.

Uncertain times tend to produce uncertain markets, and that is very much the backdrop right now, although there are still some patterns you can rely on. With agents holding back inventory ahead of last week’s Easter holiday, we expected a post holiday bump and we got one, but it was not evenly distributed across the East Bay. Berkeley led the way in new listings, though not in the areas where demand has been strongest, as much of the new inventory came from the Hills, a segment that has not seen the same buyer appetite this year, so while the headline number improved the impact feels more muted. Even with the increase, inventory remains below the levels we saw in the weeks leading up to Easter, and “Coming Soon” activity has tapered off, suggesting there may not be much additional supply waiting to hit the market. One final variable to watch is the stormy weather forecast this weekend, which may have caused some agents to delay listing debuts, and if that is the case it should show up in next week’s data.

All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, which is pushing up oil prices, unsettling financial markets, and nudging mortgage rates higher. Even so, the story on the ground hasn’t changed much. Exceptionally low inventory is being met with strong demand, and that continues to put a firm floor under prices despite rate pressure.

Micro market note: El Sobrante is seeing a significant increase in listings and a slow down in contracts. El Sobrante has a lot to offer, especially some great and affordable opportunities. Reach out to discuss!!

Please read more on rates below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.

Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

I have noted last year’s count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

Mortgage rates around 6% to 6.5% are likely the norm for 2026, which is actually an improvement over the past couple of years. The key is that today’s buyers are not locked in forever. If rates fall in the future, homeowners can refinance and lower their payments. As rates eventually come down, home values tend to rise. At the same time, each monthly payment builds equity. When you combine rising values, loan paydown, and the option to refinance, homeowners often see meaningful wealth growth over time. This is one of the main reasons homeowners tend to build significantly more wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.

For more detail, see the “Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates” section below.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 56%, making the average over the past 2 months 56%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion’s share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

The 2 month chart has been approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are starting to slip while homes continue to go contract at a steady pace.. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’m also seeing renewed momentum in Rockridge and Temescal, with demand beginning to rebound after a quieter stretch in 2025.

Inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty are, for now, being tempered by a simple but powerful dynamic of constrained supply meeting strong demand.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Similar to the Berkeley Hills, fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 336

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 507

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,115,478 (28 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,087,061 (24 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Berkeley’s market has been intensely competitive so far this year, with multiple offers the norm for well priced, well located, and well presented homes. It is increasingly a tale of two markets: In the Flats, including central, north, and northwest Berkeley, prices are commonly landing between $1,200 and $1,400+ or more per square foot*, while in the Hills, particularly within Very High Fire Hazard Zones, values drop closer to around +/-$750 per square foot, creating a clear divide. Demand in the Flats remains especially strong, and inventory had been declining at a time of year when it would typically rise, until this week when new listings jumped. However, much of that new supply comes from the Hills, where buyer demand has been softer, so the overall impact is more muted. Even with the increase, inventory is still below pre Easter levels, and the pattern persists where the most desirable homes sell quickly, followed by a slowdown as remaining listings take longer to find buyers.

*It’s also worth noting that price per square foot typically declines as home size increases, with the highest value generally concentrated in the first 1000 square feet.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 59

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 88

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,775,200 (10 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,355,200 (12 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year - 46% Y-oY. Similar to Berkeley, the graph highlights an extraordinary dynamic: active inventory declining at a time of year when it should be rising, until this week when new listings jumped. Even with the increase, inventory is still below pre Easter levels, and the pattern persists where the most desirable homes sell quickly, followed by a slowdown as remaining listings take longer to find buyers.

That’s reflected in the data too: Average Days on Market (DOM) for Richmond has increased from 80 to 87 in the past two weeks.

Note: Buyers are jumping quickly on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like Richmond North & East, where one property received 18 offers, and The Annex, where a listing received 24 offers, and home values are climbing past anything we saw last year.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 67

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 125

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $786,938 (15 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $707,348 (72 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 76 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 67. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Due to inventory constraints this year it seems that the Inner East Bay single family home market has generally hit its floor and logically that should mean the floor for condos is imminent.

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in late-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, April 12: Let’s break it down

Of the 214 single family residential homes that have an open house 6% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the 126 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 5% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 43 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has moved down from last week past week’s high water mark of 50. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 40. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

How’s That Working Out?

In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict with Iran and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5%, to $6.64% approx. for a 30-year conventional.We are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5%, actually ending 6.64% this week and the swings along the way have been significant. The war may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices continue to climb.

What drives rates?

Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: War Still Weighing on Rates, But Volatility Continues to Ebb. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend!

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

There’s a concept in real estate that quietly saves people hundreds of thousands of dollars: Stepped-up basis. It does not come up in everyday conversation and it does not sell houses, but when it matters, it really matters. I sat down with estate planning attorney Loulena Miles on The Mostly Real Estate Podcast to break this down in plain English, and the more you understand it, the more you realize it shapes decisions far beyond taxes.

I encourage you to click here to listen to the podcast. This article adds more depth.

What Is Basis

To start, you need a simple concept. Your basis is what the IRS uses as your starting point for calculating profit. If you buy a home for $200,000, your basis is $200,000. If you sell it for $1,000,000, your taxable gain is $800,000. That part is straightforward. What is not obvious is how dramatically that number can change under the right circumstances.

What Is a Stepped-Up Basis

A stepped-up basis resets the value of a property to its current market value because of a death. If you inherit a property, your basis becomes the fair market value on the date of death . That is the entire concept, and it is where things start to get interesting.

A Real World California Example

Take a familiar East Bay scenario. Maggie and Frank bought their home 30 years ago for $200,000. Over time it appreciated to $1,000,000. When Frank passes away, something powerful happens. Because we are in California and the property is correctly titled as community property, Maggie receives a stepped-up basis on the entire home, not just Frank’s half. Her new basis is $1,000,000. If she sells for $1,100,000, she is only taxed on $100,000 of gain instead of $900,000. That is not a marginal improvement. That is the difference between a manageable tax bill and a very large one.

Why California Is Different

The real advantage in California is what is often called the double step-up. When a married couple holds property as community property, the entire property resets to market value at the death of the first spouse. In many other states, only half would reset. That means a surviving spouse can often sell shortly after and owe little to no capital gains tax on decades of appreciation. It is one of the most underappreciated financial advantages of homeownership here.

Where People Get It Wrong

Where people run into trouble is usually not complicated, but it is costly. A parent may decide to add a child to title during their lifetime to make things easier later. It feels logical. In reality, it is one of the most common and expensive mistakes people make. The child receives the original basis instead of a stepped-up one, and because the parent no longer owns the property at death, there is no reset. When the child sells, they may owe taxes on the full appreciation going back decades .

Another issue comes up when no appraisal is done at the time of death. Years later, when the property is sold, there is no clear record of value to support the stepped-up basis. The fix is simple but often missed. Get an appraisal at the time of death and keep it.

Marriage Versus Not Being Married

There is also a practical distinction between married and unmarried ownership. Tax law quietly rewards marriage here. If a married couple holds property as community property, the entire home receives a step-up. If two unmarried partners own a home and one passes away, only the deceased partner’s half resets. The surviving partner may still owe capital gains on their portion. That difference can be significant.

The Role of Trusts and Titling

Trusts often come into the conversation, but it is important to separate their role. A revocable living trust does not change the stepped-up basis. The tax result is the same. The purpose of a trust is to avoid probate, allow for management during incapacity, and simplify things for heirs.

What does matter is titling. If a couple bought a property before marriage, the deed may not say community property. Without that designation, they may miss out on the full step-up. This is why attorneys often update deeds to reflect community property.

Property Taxes Are a Separate System

At this point, people often ask a reasonable question. If the value resets for capital gains, does that mean property taxes go up too?

The answer is no. Under Proposition 13, property taxes are based on assessed value, not current market value, and transfers between spouses, including those caused by death, are excluded from reassessment. You can receive a stepped-up basis while your property tax bill remains largely unchanged. These are two separate systems that operate independently.

Timing Matters More Than People Think

To see how timing plays into all of this, and how the role of the IRS capital gains exemption intertwines, consider Mary. She bought her home in 1980 for $100,000, and today it is worth $1,000,000. That is a $900,000 gain. If she sells as a single person, she can get an IRS exemption of up to $250,000, leaving $650,000 potentially taxable.

She decides to marry Paul and sell six months later, assuming that marriage unlocks the $500,000 exemption ($250,000 each per married partner). It does not. To qualify for the full $500,000 exemption, both spouses must have lived in the home for at least two of the last five years. Mary qualifies, but Paul does not, so they are still limited to $250,000.

If they wait and live in the home together for two years, the outcome changes. Now they qualify for the full $500,000 exemption. Nothing about the property has changed. Only the timing has, and that timing can translate into a substantial difference in taxes.

The Option Most People Overlook

There is also a longer-term path that often gets overlooked. If Mary never sells and instead passes away while still owning the home, the property receives a stepped-up basis at that time. If it is worth $1,000,000, that becomes the new basis. If Paul sells shortly after, there may be little to no capital gains tax due.

If the home is held as community property, the entire property receives that reset. What once looked like a $900,000 taxable gain can effectively disappear.

The Quiet Tradeoff

This is where a quieter tradeoff starts to emerge, especially in the East Bay. Stepped-up basis can act like a set of golden handcuffs. On paper, it makes perfect sense to hold onto a property. The longer you wait, the more potential tax liability disappears.

In practice, I see people stay in homes that no longer fit their lives. Homes with too many stairs, homes that are larger than they need, homes where maintenance is deferred year after year because the thinking is that they are not selling anyway.

The tax benefit is real, but so is the cost of staying in a home that no longer works for you. This is not just a tax decision. It is a life decision.

The Bottom Line

Stepped-up basis remains one of the most powerful tax advantages available to homeowners, but it only works when the details are handled correctly. Title matters. Timing matters. Documentation matters. If you understand how those pieces interact, this one rule alone can change the financial outcome of a lifetime of homeownership.

Final Thought

This is one of those areas where guessing is expensive. If you own property in the East Bay and have held it for a long time, it is worth having a conversation with an estate attorney and a CPA. Because this is not theory. This is real money. Your money.

This is general information based on my experience in real estate and conversations with professionals in the field. I am not a CPA or an attorney, and this should not be considered tax or legal advice. Always check with a qualified tax professional or estate planning attorney before making decisions that affect your finances.

Sources and Further Reading

• The Mostly Real Estate Podcast – Episode: What Is Stepped-Up Basis in Real Estate? featuring Loulena Miles

• Internal Revenue Service – Publication 523: Selling Your Home (Section 121 capital gains exclusion rules)

• Internal Revenue Service – Publication 551: Basis of Assets (general basis and stepped-up basis rules)

• Internal Revenue Code Section 1014 – Basis of property acquired from a decedent

• Internal Revenue Code Section 121 – Exclusion of gain from sale of principal residence

• Proposition 13 – California property tax limitations and reassessment rules

• Proposition 19 – Property tax reassessment rules for inherited property

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

To find out more about Loulena Miles and her practice click here

For a more dynamic view of this post please click here to view it on our website.

April 5, Sunday Open Homes List.

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.

What I’m seeing in the market this week.

It’s Easter Sunday. Happy Easter if that’s your jam. Like most holidays, it brings a dip in open homes, and this year is no different. There’s a 44% drop in Sunday open homes compared to last week. Interestingly, when I look back at Easter Sunday last year, the decline was exactly the same: 44%.

In conversations with fellow agents this week, it’s clear that new listings have been unusually slow. The prevailing thought is that some inventory is being held back until after Easter. There’s data to support that. “Coming Soon” listings increased by 30% over the past week, which suggests a wave of inventory may be just around the corner.

Looking back to Easter Sunday last year (April 20), even though open homes dipped week over week, overall inventory actually increased. That’s a useful reminder of just how different this year is. Across Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond, there are 36% fewer homes available than at the same time in 2025.

All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, which is pushing up oil prices, unsettling financial markets, and nudging mortgage rates higher. Even so, the story on the ground hasn’t changed much. Exceptionally low inventory is being met with strong demand, and that continues to put a firm floor under prices despite rate pressure.

Micro market note: El Sobrante is the only area that saw an increase in inventory this past week. It might be worth taking a closer look there.

Please read more on rates below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.

Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

I have noted last year’s count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

Mortgage rates around 6% to 6.5% are likely the norm for 2026, which is actually an improvement over the past couple of years. The key is that today’s buyers are not locked in forever. If rates fall in the future, homeowners can refinance and lower their payments. As rates eventually come down, home values tend to rise. At the same time, each monthly payment builds equity. When you combine rising values, loan paydown, and the option to refinance, homeowners often see meaningful wealth growth over time. This is one of the main reasons homeowners tend to build significantly more wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.

For more detail, see the “Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates” section below.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 56%, making the average over the past 2 months 56%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion’s share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

The 2 month chart is approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to emerge. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’m also seeing that buyer activity in Rockridge, and Temescal has started to pick up again after a sluggish 2025.

The chart below for Oakland shows something different than what’s occurring in Berkeley and Richmond: a very slight drop in the speed of properties going under contract (Pending). Could this be the first sign that rates going from 5.9% a month ago to approx. $6.6% in the past 2 weeks is beginning to slow demand in Oakland? Time will tell.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 331

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 485

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,145,767 (24 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,134,372 (21 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Berkeley’s real estate market so far this year has been fierce. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. It’s a tale of 2 cities though: We’re routinely seeing property sell for between $1,200 to $1,400 per sq ft, down from the hills, in ‘the flats’ (central, north, and northwest Berkeley), but the Berkeley market changes in the Very High Fire Hazard Zones in Hills where per sq ft drops precipitously to +/-$850 making for different average values from the flats to the hills. The pace of sales in the Berkeley flats remains unusually fierce. The graph highlights an extraordinary dynamic: active inventory is declining at a time of year when it should be rising. Pending sales have eased slightly, which may reflect the effects of tight supply. The most desirable homes are being snapped up quickly, followed by a brief pause as the remaining inventory takes longer to find buyers.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 46

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 85

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,665,750 (14 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,172,533 (18 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year - 45% Y-oY. Similar to Berkeley, the graph highlights an extraordinary dynamic: active inventory is declining at a time of year when it should be rising. Pending sales have eased slightly, which may reflect the effects of tight supply. The most desirable homes are being snapped up quickly, followed by a brief pause as the remaining inventory takes longer to find buyers. That’s reflected in the data too: Average Days on Market (DOM) for Richmond has increased from 80 to 84 in the past week.

Note: Buyers are jumping quickly on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like Richmond North & East, where one property received 18 offers, and The Annex, where a listing received 24 offers, and home values are climbing past anything we saw last year.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 64

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 116

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $681,417 (17 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $741,870 (18 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 75 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 86. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Due to inventory constraints this year it seems that the Inner East Bay single family home market has generally hit its floor and logically that should mean the floor for condos is imminent.

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in late-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, April 5: Let’s break it down

Of the 124 single family residential homes that have an open house 2% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the 43 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 0.5% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 50 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has increased over the past week by 30%. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 40.5. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

How’s That Working Out?

In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict with Iran and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5%, to $6.64% approx. for a 30-year conventional.We are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5%, actually ending 6.64% this week and the swings along the way have been significant. The war may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices continue to climb.

What drives rates?

Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: Relatively, A Calmer Week and Lower Rates. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend!

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

There’s a version of buying a home that feels logical.

You look at the comps. You run the numbers. You arrive at a price that makes sense.

And then there’s what actually happens when 11 other buyers show up.

The Setup

A client and I were discussing a home they liked.

I had toured the property, reviewed the disclosures, and pulled the most relevant comps. I shared what I was seeing:

“I’ve also attached a list of the most recent and relevant home sales showing the average property sold price percentage over listing price and the average price per square foot, which exceeds $1,200. Since inventory is down in Albany, we need to look for comparable properties in Berkeley.”

They took a different approach.

They ran the same property through an AI tool and came back with this:

A recommended bid range of $1.3M to $1.385M
Central target around $1.355M
Walk-away ceiling at $1.42M

Clean. Reasonable. Easy to defend.

Also not how this market works.

Where It Breaks

They asked the right question:

“So your comps seem to suggest around $1.9M based on square footage? That seems a little high to me.”

And this is where things tend to go sideways.

Because I wasn’t offering a formula. I was offering a read on the market.

“I wish it were as simple as applying the average price per sq ft of a select number of listings, but it’s just not that simple. Each listing will have its own path.”

That’s the gap.

Not access to data. Interpretation of it.

What the Data Was Actually Saying

When I refined the comps, the range became clearer:

“Attached is a tighter list of comps that suggests to me the property will sell in the range of $1.7M minimum, and could appraise as high as $1.9M if necessary.”

That wasn’t a guess. That was a read on how far buyers were likely to push.

And more importantly, why.

The Part That Actually Matters

This is the part no model can capture.

At a certain point, the numbers stop driving the outcome. The buyers do.

I laid it out directly:

“Buyer Scenario 1: We won’t be devastated if we don’t get this now. There’ll be more in the next few months. Let’s offer $1.725 and see what happens.”

“Buyer Scenario 2: We’ve been beaten out 5 times and we’re now ready to make a strong offer. We really like this place and we’re fed up with losing out while rates climb. Let’s offer $1.850, non-contingent.”

Same house. Same comps. Different buyers. Different mindset. Different result.

The Decision

They chose their lane:

“We’ve locked in $1.565M as a starting offer, and can perhaps go up to $1.615.”

Again, nothing unreasonable about that number.

It just didn’t match the reality of the competition.

What Happened Next

There were 11 offers.

The property went into contract at about $1.9M.

They weren’t in the running.

What This Actually Means

They didn’t lack information. They tried using the most sophisticated AI technology available. They didn’t ignore the comps.

But, they leaned on a version of the data that aligned with how they wanted the market to behave, and discounted the interpretation that reflected how it actually behaves. AI interpreted how things were but not how things might be.

That distinction matters.

Because the comps don’t win you the house.

Your positioning against other buyers does.

So What Does “Listen to Your Realtor” Mean

It doesn’t mean blind trust.

It means understanding what your agent is actually doing.

The comps tell you where things have been.

Your agent is trying to tell you where this one is going.

Those are not the same thing.

AI can give you a range. It cannot tell you when 11 offers are about to show up. It cannot tell you when someone else has already decided they are done losing.

And it cannot tell you when $1.615M isn’t even close.

The Bottom Line

You can absolutely approach this process with discipline. You can stay conservative. You can stick to your number.

Just understand what that choice usually means.

You’re not just deciding what the home is worth to you. You’re deciding whether you’re willing to compete with everyone else who wants it.

That’s the market. You don’t have to like it, but you do have to understand it.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

If you’ve been watching the housing market lately, it is easy to land on a simple takeaway. Sales are down, so demand must be down too.

Clean. Logical. And not quite right.

That conclusion assumes the market has fewer buyers. What it may actually have is fewer homes to buy.

The 30 Percent Illusion

Here in the East Bay, we are seeing something very specific. Inventory in many of our local markets is down roughly 20 to 30 percent compared to last year. That is not a subtle shift. That is a noticeable gap.

Now here is the part that can throw people off. When inventory drops by 30 percent, sales often fall by a similar amount. It creates the impression that demand has cooled.

In reality, it may simply mean there were 30 percent fewer opportunities for a sale to happen in the first place.

Fewer homes for sale leads directly to fewer closed sales. Not exactly a plot twist, but it is often overlooked.

The National Story vs. The East Bay Story

To understand why this matters, it helps to zoom out.

Across the United States, housing inventory is still low by historical standards, but it has been gradually improving. In some areas, the number of homes for sale is starting to climb. The national story right now is one of a slow thaw.

The East Bay is telling a different story.

In many of our core markets, especially in places like Berkeley and parts of Oakland and Richmond, inventory is not improving. In some cases it is still shrinking. Not hiding in plain sight, but certainly not showing up in meaningful numbers either.

That divergence matters.

Where Did the Buyers Go?

Short answer. They did not go anywhere.

Buyers have become more selective and more sensitive to mortgage rates, but they are still very much present. When a well priced and well prepared home comes to market, it is still being absorbed quickly. Open houses are active. Disclosure packages are being reviewed. Offers are being written.

If anything, the issue is not a lack of buyers. It is a lack of options.

The shelves are a little bare, but the shoppers are still in the store.

Rates Are Pulling Double Duty

Mortgage rates are part of the story, but not in the way many headlines suggest.

Higher rates reduce affordability and cause some buyers to pause. That part is straightforward. But rates are also affecting sellers.

Homeowners who refinanced into very low rates in recent years are reluctant to sell and take on a new mortgage at a higher rate. This is often called the rate lock in effect, and it is very real.

So the same force that cools buyers is also keeping sellers on the sidelines.

Rates are not just slowing demand. They are quietly squeezing supply.

What About All the Global Noise?

There is also broader economic uncertainty in the background. Tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher at times, which feeds into inflation concerns and keeps pressure on interest rates.

That can influence buyer psychology around the edges. But the main mechanism is still mortgage rates, not fear itself.

It is less about people reacting to headlines, and more about how those headlines ripple through borrowing costs.

A Better Question to Ask

So when you see headlines about declining sales, it is worth pausing and asking a better question.

Are buyers stepping back, or are there simply fewer homes available for them to step into?

In the East Bay right now, a large part of the answer is supply.

Why Some Homes Are Outrageously Competitive

This is why certain homes are still performing exceptionally well. When demand meets scarcity, the homes that check the right boxes can attract strong competition, and as the old saying goes, “location, location, location” is the primary determining factor. The Berkeley “Flats”, especially Central and North Berkeley, Albany, El Cerrito, and parts of Oakland and Richmond are prime examples of micro-markets that are currently seeing multiple offers and vast differences upward from listing price to sold price.

At the same time, the overall number of transactions remains lower because there just are not enough listings to go around.

The result is a market that feels a little contradictory. Quiet on paper, competitive in practice.

The Real Takeaway

This is not a broken market. It is a supply constrained one.

Understanding that difference helps make sense of what you are seeing every Sunday. It also helps buyers and sellers make better decisions. Buyers should not assume that less competition exists across the board. Sellers should not assume that lower sales volume means weak demand.

In many parts of the East Bay, the real story is simpler.

There are fewer homes to buy. And the ones that do show up tend to get plenty of attention.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

For a more dynamic view of this post please click here to view it on our website.

March 29, Sunday Open Homes List.

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.

What I’m seeing in the market this week.

The extraordinary decline in inventory Y-o-Y (year-over-year) appears to be a feature of the 2026 market, not a bug. There are fewer single-family-homes to visit this Sunday than last (but there are more condos). The charts below for Berkeley and Richmond are moving exactly opposite of what should be happening this time of year. Oakland, although 25% lower in terms of inventory Y-o-Y, is perhaps starting to soften and behave differently than Berkeley and Richmond.

I don’t mean to draw a false correlation for Oakland, but the real estate market is unfolding against the backdrop of war in the Middle East, adding inflationary pressure to oil, unsettling the broader money markets, and pushing mortgage rates higher. In Berkeley and Richmond, one force seems to be cancelling out the other: Exceptionally low inventory is being absorbed by exceptionally strong demand and continues to overpower rate sensitivity and keep a firm floor under prices. The chart below for Oakland shows something different: a very slight drop in the speed of properties going under contract (Pending). Could this be the first sign that rates going from 5.9% a month ago to $6.64% in the past week is beginning to slow demand? Time will tell.

There’s one East Bay metro that’s dancing to the beat of its own drum: Albany. Albany is seeing an increase in inventory over last year by about 50%! It’s a small place, just 1 sq mile the locals say (and it’s almost true). There are 10 homes actively available, but don’t expect a bargain. The 30% decline in Berkeley listings Y-o-Y means that Albany is in huge demand.

Please read more on rates below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.

Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

I have noted last year’s count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

Mortgage rates around 6% to 6.5% are likely the norm for 2026, which is actually an improvement over the past couple of years. The key is that today’s buyers are not locked in forever. If rates fall in the future, homeowners can refinance and lower their payments. As rates eventually come down, home values tend to rise. At the same time, each monthly payment builds equity. When you combine rising values, loan paydown, and the option to refinance, homeowners often see meaningful wealth growth over time. This is one of the main reasons homeowners tend to build significantly more wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.

For more detail, see the “Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates” section below.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 56%, making the average over the past 2 months 55.5%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion’s share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

The 2 month chart is approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to emerge. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’m also seeing that buyer activity in Rockridge, and Temescal has started to pick up again after a sluggish 2025.

The chart below for Oakland shows something different than what’s occurring in Berkeley and Richmond: a very slight drop in the speed of properties going under contract (Pending). Could this be the first sign that rates going from 5.9% a month ago to $6.64% in the past week is beginning to slow demand in Oakland? Time will tell.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 361

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 477

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,295,897 (24 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,200,266 (21 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Berkeley’s real estate market so far this year has been fierce. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. It’s a tale of 2 cities though: We’re routinely seeing property sell for between $1,200 to $1,400 per sq ft, down from the hills, in ‘the flats’ (central, north, and northwest Berkeley), but the Berkeley market changes in the Very High Fire Hazard Zones in Hills where per sq ft drops precipitously to +/-$850 making for different average values from the flats to the hills. The speed of sales in Berkeley is unusually fierce in the flats. The graph shows an extraordinary situation with Active inventory declining 31% Y-o-Y as Pending sales increase. I would not normally expect to see this type of graph until after October, as the real estate year begins to wind down.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 52

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 76

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,564,500 (14 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,590,689 (18 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year - 39% Y-oY.. However, average Days On Market (DOM) for all active detached single family homes in Richmond is currently at 80 days. That means there’s a bunch of inventory simply sitting on the market, and much of it is likely negotiable. Similar to Berkeley, the graph shows an extraordinary situation with Active inventory declining as Pending sales increase. I would not normally expect to see this type of graph until after October, as the real estate year begins to wind down.

Buyers are jumping quickly on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like The Annex and Richmond North & East where one property received 18 offers and home values are climbing past anything we saw last year.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 70

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 116

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $814,000 (12 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $703,430 (36 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 73 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 82. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Click here for a Fall 2025 Substack post on why I believed the period between then and March 2026 might represent an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo. Since we’re now in March let’s find out by the end of the month how well my prediction held up!

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in mid-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, March 29: Let’s break it down

Of the 257 single family residential homes that have an open house 5% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the 124 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 8% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 35 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has increased over the past week. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 40.5. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

How’s That Working Out?

In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict with Iran and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates above 6.5%, to $6.64% approx. for a 30-year conventional.We are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5%, actually ending 6.64% this week and the swings along the way have been significant. The war may move everything completely out of whack with forecasts if oil prices continue to climb.

What drives rates?

Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: Mortgage Market Remains Transfixed By War. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend!

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

In recent years, as homeowners who have lived in their homes for decades become more aware of their potential capital gains tax liability, it has become very common for me to hear some version of this:

“Someone told us we should look into a 1031 exchange.”

It usually comes from a well meaning friend, a relative, or something read online. And on the surface, it sounds like a great idea. You sell a property, roll the proceeds into another one, and avoid paying taxes.

Then comes the frustrating part. You check with your CPA and get the answer you were not hoping for.

You cannot do a 1031 exchange on your primary residence.

Here is why that is the case, and what options may still exist if you are sitting on a large gain.

Share

1. The Actual Reason 1031 Does Not Apply

A 1031 exchange is governed by Internal Revenue Code Section 1031. The key requirement is that the property must be held for productive use in a trade or business or for investment.

A primary residence does not meet that standard. It is considered personal use property.

That is the entire reason. The rule simply draws a line between personal use and investment use.

2. The Tax Benefit You Already Have

While you cannot use a 1031 on your home, you are not without a tax break. Internal Revenue Code Section 121 allows many homeowners to exclude a portion of their gain entirely.

If you have owned and lived in your home for at least two of the last five years, you can exclude up to $250,000 of gain if you are single, or up to $500,000 if you are married filing jointly.

That is not a deferral. That is a permanent exclusion.

You are also not required to reinvest in real estate. You can take the proceeds and do whatever you want with them.

For many homeowners, this is more flexible and more valuable than a 1031 exchange.

3. What If Your Gain Is Much Larger?

This is where things start to get more nuanced.

If your gain is significantly above the Section 121 limits, some homeowners consider converting their home into an investment property before selling.

That typically means moving out and renting the property at market rates for a meaningful period of time. The goal is to establish that the property is now being held for investment rather than personal use.

There is no simple rule that says renting it for a year or two automatically qualifies it. The Internal Revenue Service looks at intent, usage, and in some cases applies specific safe harbor guidelines. The details matter.

If the property is successfully converted to investment use, a future sale may qualify for a 1031 exchange. In some cases, Section 121 and Section 1031 can both apply, with the exclusion used first and the exchange applied to the remaining gain.

This is not a casual strategy. It requires planning and coordination with a tax professional.

4. Delaware Statutory What?

Once someone starts seriously considering a 1031 exchange, the next question becomes what to buy as replacement property. Not everyone wants to trade one rental for another and keep managing tenants, maintenance, and day to day issues.

That is where something called a Delaware Statutory Trust, or DST, often enters the conversation.

A DST allows multiple investors to own fractional interests in large, professionally managed real estate assets such as apartment complexes, office buildings, or industrial properties.

From the investor’s perspective, it can feel like passive ownership. The sponsor handles leasing, maintenance, and operations.

It is important to understand that a DST is not a special tax loophole. It is simply one form of qualifying replacement property for a 1031 exchange, as recognized in IRS Revenue Ruling 2004-86.

There are also tradeoffs. DSTs are typically illiquid, meaning you cannot easily sell your interest. They are offered as securities, often through private placements, and many are geared toward accredited investors. The quality of the sponsor and the underlying property matters a great deal.

In other words, this is not just a tax decision. It is an investment decision.

5. Deferral Can’t Eliminate Forever

A 1031 exchange does not eliminate taxes. It defers them.

Each time you exchange, your cost basis carries forward into the next property. Over time, that can create a large built in gain.

If you eventually sell without doing another exchange, you may owe capital gains tax on the accumulated appreciation, along with tax on depreciation that was taken during the years the property was held as an investment.

Depending on the facts, that depreciation component can be taxed at rates up to 25 percent under current rules, and some accelerated depreciation strategies can produce different recapture treatment.

In other words, the tax bill does not disappear. It follows you.

6. Swap ‘Til You Drop. Yes, That’s a Real Strategy

You may hear the phrase “swap until you drop.”

The idea is to continue exchanging from one property to another, deferring taxes along the way, and hold the final property until death.

Under current law, many inherited assets receive a step up in basis to their fair market value at the date of death. That can reduce or eliminate the deferred capital gain for heirs.

It is a widely discussed strategy, but it is still subject to broader tax planning considerations, including estate tax rules and potential future changes in the law.

The Bottom Line

You cannot use a 1031 exchange on your primary residence because the tax code limits 1031 treatment to investment and business property.

In exchange, homeowners are given a different benefit under Section 121, which allows a significant portion of gain to be excluded entirely.

For those with gains well beyond that exclusion, there may be more advanced strategies involving conversion to rental use, a potential 1031 exchange, and in some cases passive ownership structures like a DST.

None of these paths are automatic. Each comes with rules, timing considerations, and investment risk.

If you are in that position, the right next step is not to chase a strategy. It is to sit down with a qualified CPA or tax advisor and map out what actually fits your situation.

Resources for Further Reading

• Internal Revenue Code § 1031: Law governing “Like-Kind” exchanges.

• Internal Revenue Code § 121: Law for the capital gains exclusion on primary residences.

• IRS Publication 523: Selling Your Home – The definitive guide for the $250k/$500k exclusion.

• IRS Publication 544: Sales and Other Dispositions of Assets – Covers investment property and depreciation.

• IRS Revenue Ruling 2004-86: The ruling that allows DSTs to qualify for 1031 exchanges.

• IRS Revenue Procedure 2008-16: The “Safe Harbor” guidelines for converting a residence to a rental.

• SEC: Private Placements: Overview of “Accredited Investor” requirements.

• FINRA: Private Placement Risks: Detailed breakdown of liquidity and transparency risks.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

Disclaimer

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute professional tax, legal, or investment advice. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy based on 2026 standards and the OBBB Act, tax laws vary by individual. DSTs are speculative, illiquid securities available only to accredited investors. Always consult with a qualified CPA or tax attorney before attempting a property conversion or exchange.

March 22, Sunday Open Homes List.

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for today, please click here.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.

What I’m seeing in the market this week.

The extraordinary decline in inventory Y-o-Y (year-over-year) appears to be a feature of the 2026 market, not a bug. At this point in the year, within arm’s reach of the April-May market when we should be seeing a pronounced climb in active listings, we are seeing the opposite. Unless there is an extraordinary number of homes waiting in the wings behind closed doors (excuse the pun) being prepared and staged for market, it does not appear that relief is just around the corner, or hiding in the closet (groan).

All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of war in the Middle East, adding inflationary pressure to oil, unsettling the broader money markets, and pushing mortgage rates higher. Locally, one force seems to be cancelling out the other. Exceptionally low inventory is being absorbed by exceptionally strong demand, as AI-driven tech wealth continues to overpower rate sensitivity and keep a firm floor under prices. Yup, that was another pun.

Please read more on rates below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.

Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

I have noted last year’s count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.

Share

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

Mortgage rates around 6% to 6.5% are likely the norm for 2026, which is actually an improvement over the past couple of years. The key is that today’s buyers are not locked in forever. If rates fall in the future, homeowners can refinance and lower their payments. As rates eventually come down, home values tend to rise. At the same time, each monthly payment builds equity. When you combine rising values, loan paydown, and the option to refinance, homeowners often see meaningful wealth growth over time. This is one of the main reasons homeowners tend to build significantly more wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership.

For more detail, see the “Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates” section below.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 56%, making the average over the past 2 months 55.5%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion’s share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

The 2 month chart is approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to emerge. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’m also seeing that buyer activity in Rockridge, and Temescal has started to pick up again after a sluggish 2025.

The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to remain steady. The slowdown in inventory (down 27% Y-o-Y) could be a direct consequence of last year’s property value declines in Oakland and homeowners deciding to wait for the market to pick-up before they consider selling.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 348

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 482

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,430,404 (17 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,167,159 (23 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. It’s a tale of 2 cities though: We’re routinely seeing property sell for between $1,200 to $1,400 per sq ft, down from the hills in central, north, and northwest Berkeley, but the Berkeley market changes in the Very High Fire Hazard Zones in Hills where per sq ft drops precipitously to +/-$800 making for different average values from the flats to the hills. The speed of sales in Berkeley is unusually fierce in the flats. The graph shows an extraordinary situation with Active inventory declining 25% Y-o-Y as Pending sales increase. I would not normally expect to see this type of graph until after October, as the real estate year begins to wind down.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 58

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 77

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,670,714 (18 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,940,111 (14 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year - 35% Y-oY.. However, average Days On Market (DOM) for all active detached single family homes in Richmond is currently at 80 days. That means there’s a lot of inventory simply sitting on the market, and much of it is likely negotiable. Similar to Berkeley, the graph shows an extraordinary situation with Active inventory declining as Pending sales increase. I would not normally expect to see this type of graph until after October, as the real estate year begins to wind down.

Buyers are jumping quickly on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like The Annex and Richmond North & East where one property received 18 offers!

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 76

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 117

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $704,815 (37 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $751,788 (39 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 74 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 72. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Click here for a Fall 2025 Substack post on why I believed the period between then and March 2026 might represent an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo. Since we’re now in March let’s find out by the end of the month how well my prediction held up!

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in mid-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, March 22: Let’s break it down

Of the 275 single family residential homes that have an open house 0.36% (1 listing) had a price adjustment - that’s reset from last week’s 8%. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the condos/townhouses that have an open house, 5% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 32 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has increased over the past week. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 44. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

How’s That Working Out?

In January 2026, Trump announced a plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help push rates lower, similar to past Federal Reserve efforts. Rates briefly fell just below 6% for the first time in years, but the impact did not last. Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict with Iran and concerns around oil prices, have pushed rates back just a hair above 6.5%. We are now broadly in line with forecasts of 6% to 6.5%, though the swings along the way have been significant.

What drives rates?

Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: A Very Different Rate Outlook Since War Began In The Middle East. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend!

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

Forgive the unusually Irish vibe in the illustration but it’s just a few days since St. Patrick’s Day ☘️

Increasingly I’m being asked about local incentives for energy upgrades. Through my clients I also become familiar with programs. Here’s the result of some recent digging.

The Clean HEET fireplace-to-heat-pump incentive. I thought it might be fun to investigate how this can potentially be “stacked” with local city programs to upgrade your home for little to no monthly cost.

Whether you are in Berkeley or Oakland, there are specific pots of money reserved for you—especially for seniors (62+) and those with disabilities.

Share

1. The Grant: Clean HEET (Up to $10,000+)

• The Deal: A rebate from the Air District to replace a wood-burning fireplace, stove, or older heating system with an electric heat pump (which provides both heating and AC).

• The Math: Some households may qualify for enhanced rebates that can bring total funding into the $10,000+ range depending on income and project scope.

• Details: BAAQMD Clean HEET Program

2. The City-Specific Loans (Often No Monthly Payments)

Depending on where your home is located, you may have access to a 0% interest, deferred-payment loan (meaning repayment is delayed until the home is sold or transferred):

• If you’re in BERKELEY: The Senior & Disabled Home Rehabilitation Loan offers up to $60,000 for income-qualified homeowners to fix roofs, electrical systems, or health/safety issues.

• If you’re in OAKLAND: The Home Maintenance and Improvement Program (HMIP) offers 0% to 3% deferred loans of up to roughly $75,000. It’s designed to help low-to-moderate-income homeowners correct building code deficiencies and major system failures.

3. The County Backup: Renew Alameda County (Up to $200,000)

• The Deal: If your project is larger than what the city programs cover, this county-wide program offers low-interest loans (often around 1%).

• The Math: Many of these loans offer deferred or low monthly payments depending on the loan structure.

• Details: Renew Alameda County Website

Why this matters right now:

By coordinating these programs, you may be able to complete major upgrades—like replacing outdated heating systems—while minimizing upfront costs.

For my Berkeley residents, this is a double win: completing these improvements now can help reduce or potentially satisfy your future requirements under the BESO (energy ordinance) when it eventually comes time to sell.

Disclaimer: Program details, funding levels, and eligibility requirements may change and can vary based on individual circumstances. While I’ve done my best to present accurate and current information, I may have errors or omissions. Please verify all details directly with the City of Berkeley, City of Oakland, Alameda County, or the relevant program administrators, and consult with appropriate licensed professionals before making decisions.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

For a more dynamic view of this post please click here to view it on our website.

March 15, Sunday Open Homes List.

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *allInner-East Bay open homes for this weekend,please click here.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.

What I’m seeing in the market this week.

“Where Did All The Houses Go?” was the lead article in our February 27 Monthly Report, and although the number of Open Homes continues to rise week-over-week, the reality is that available inventory for detached homes is down approximately 27% this week. year over year. Click here to read the newsletter.

What’s fascinating to me this week is that despite having caught up to last year’s inventory levels 1 week ago, Berkeley has again fallen behind year-over-year levels by 15%. The only city bucking trend in the East Bay this week is Albany which has seen a 30% week-over-week increase in active listings going from 8 to 11 available homes.Another interesting detail in the data this week is the increase in the number of homes that have taken a price hit. More on this further down.

Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Middle-East regional turmoil is rapidly affecting affordability. The chatter among agents in the East Bay this week is around how this will affect the Spring market which has so far been very strong due to low inventory. Please read more below in theLet’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.

I have noted last year’s count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposedpoint of salechanges to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6% to 6.5% will be normal for 2026 (better than the past 2 years!!), but newer homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in theLet’s Talk About Mortgage Ratessection further down.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 56%, making the average over the past 2 months 55%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion’s share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

The 2 month chart is approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to emerge. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year. I’ve heard also that buyer activity in Rockridge has started to pick up again after a sluggish 2025.

The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to slow. This is out-of-step with expectations for this time of year especially with the slower pace of new listings to the market (which is also out-of-step with seasonal expectations). The slowdown in inventory could be a direct consequence of last year’s property value declines in Oakland and homeowners deciding to wait for the market to pick-up before they consider selling.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 337

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 472

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,244,053 (19 DOM)

DOM)Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,145,455 (21 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. It’s a tale of 2 cities though: We’re routinely seeing property sell for up to $1,400 per sq ft, down from the hills in central, north, and northwest Berkeley, but the Berkeley market changes in the Very High Fire Hazard Zones in Hills where per sq ft drops precipitously to +/-$800 making for different average values from the flats to the hills. The speed of sales in Berkeley is unusually fierce in the flats. The graph shows a rollercoaster in the past 4 weeks when a rainy week caused a delay in new listings followed by a big week for new inventory and a seeming slowdown in Pendings while buyers jockeyed for position, and with Pendings picking up this week, active inventory is down week-over-week!

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 62

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 73

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $$1,600,556 (27 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,875,455 (21 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year. However, average Days On Market (DOM) for all active detached single family homes in Richmond is currently at 78 days (slowly decreasing over the past several weeks). That means there’s a lot of inventory simply sitting on the market, and much of it is likely negotiable. The gap between Active and Pending closed by quite a bit in the past week as buyers jumped on the best of the new inventory, especially in coveted areas like The Annex and Richmond North & East where one property received 18 offers!

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 81

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 110

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $887,736 (20 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $856,686 (24 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 75 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 71. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Click here for a Fall 2025 Substack post on why I believed the period between then and March 2026 might represent an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo. Since we’re now in March let’s find out by the end of the month how well my prediction held up!

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in mid-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, March 15: Let’s break it down

Of the 245 single family residential homes that have an open house 8% had a price adjustment - that’s a jump of 6% over last week. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the 120 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 7.5% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 47 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has increased over the past week. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 44. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

On January 8, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was instructing his “Representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities) [via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.]” The idea behind buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is similar in concept to programs the Federal Reserve has used in the past: when a major holder buys MBS, it increases demand, which can lower long-term mortgage rates in theory. The announcement caused rates to drop quickly, to below 6% for the first time in years - but rates have since inched up past 6% due to geopolitical and other concerns.

What drives rates? Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: From 3 Year Lows to 7 Month Highs in 2 Weeks. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend!

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

This Substack post aims to guide long-term homeowners through the complex financial transition of selling a legacy property.

Homeowners have been holding onto property later in life than ever before. Perhaps you’ve read that North Berkeley’s Thousand Oaks in particular has some of the oldest homeowners in California.

As people age, and get into their 80s, I am being asked on a greater number of appointments to discuss selling a home and, of course, top of mind is how to mitigate the tax liability and capital gains between the original purchase price and the current estimated sales value. In Berkeley, Kensington, and parts of Oakland, this story is incredibly common.

In our local East Bay market, the “gap” between a 1983 purchase price and today’s value can be staggering. Let’s navigate that transition using a hypothetical scenario to show exactly how equity can be protected.

A couple buys a home in the early 1980s for around $180,000. They raise their family there. They remodel the kitchen. They add new windows. They maybe do a seismic retrofit.

Forty years pass. Today that same house might be worth $2.4 million. And suddenly a simple question becomes surprisingly complicated:

“If we sell, how much of that gain do we actually keep?”

The raw math can be startling.

Purchase price (1983): $180,000
Estimated value today: $2,400,000

Raw gain: $2,220,000

Even after the $500,000 capital gains exemption for married couples, the remaining gain can still be substantial.

The good news is that most longtime homeowners have more protection than they realize.

How Homeowners Reduce Capital Gains

The IRS does not simply compare what you paid for a home to what you sell it for.

Instead they calculate something called your Adjusted Cost Basis.

Every legitimate dollar added to your basis reduces the amount of taxable gain.

Capital Improvements Matter

Over forty years, most homes undergo significant improvements.

The IRS distinguishes between repairs and capital improvements.

Repairs maintain the home.

Capital improvements increase the tax basis.

Common examples include:

• Roof replacement

• Kitchen or bathroom remodels

• Seismic retrofitting

• Electrical upgrades

• Window replacement

• Deck construction

If this couple spent $250,000 over the decades improving the property, their basis increases from:

$180,000 → $430,000

That alone could reduce taxes by tens of thousands of dollars, depending on tax bracket.

Selling Costs Also Reduce Taxes

Selling expenses also reduce taxable gain.

Typical East Bay transactions include:

• real estate commissions

• staging

• escrow and legal fees

• transfer taxes

On a $2.4M sale, these expenses might total around $150,000.

Example Calculation

Sale price: $2,400,000

Minus selling expenses: – $150,000

Net proceeds: $2,250,000

Adjusted cost basis:

Purchase price: $180,000
Improvements: + $250,000

Total basis: $430,000

Final result:

Gain before exclusion: $1,820,000

Primary residence exclusion: – $500,000

Estimated taxable gain: $1,320,000

Without documenting improvements, that taxable gain could be significantly higher.

Property Taxes After the Move: Understanding Prop 19

Many longtime East Bay homeowners have extremely low property taxes thanks to Proposition 13.

Under Prop 13:

• property taxes start at the purchase price

• assessed value can only increase 2% per year

A home purchased decades ago may still have an assessed value somewhere around $400,000–$450,000, even if its market value exceeds $2M.

Naturally, homeowners worry about losing that benefit when they move.

How Prop 19 Helps

California’s Proposition 19 allows homeowners age 55 or older to transfer their existing property tax base to a new home.

Key points:

• the replacement home must be purchased within two years

• it must become the homeowner’s primary residence

• the transfer can be used up to three times

If the replacement home costs the same or less than the one sold, the tax base transfers completely.

Example:

Sale price of original home: $2,400,000
Replacement condo: $700,000

Because the replacement home costs less than the home sold, the homeowner can transfer their existing tax assessment to the new property.

Instead of paying taxes based on $700,000, they may continue paying taxes based on roughly $400,000.

The Question Many Families Eventually Ask

For homeowners later in life, another question often arises:

Should we sell — or leave the house to our children?

When heirs inherit a property, they typically receive what is called a step-up in basis. This means the tax basis resets to the market value at the time of inheritance.

If heirs sell the property soon afterward, they may owe little or no capital gains tax.

However, under Proposition 19, inherited homes are generally reassessed to current market value unless the child moves into the home as their primary residence.

For this reason, decisions about selling later in life are often made in consultation with both tax professionals and family members.

One Practical Tip

If you are considering selling a long-held property, start gathering records now.

Even partial documentation can help establish your improvement history.

Look for:

• contractor invoices

• construction contracts

• permit records

• bank statements

• insurance documentation

These records can significantly reduce your taxable gain.

Final Thought

In the East Bay, homes purchased decades ago have often become a family’s largest financial asset.

Understanding the interaction between:

• capital gains rules

• improvement basis

• selling deductions

• Proposition 19

can make a meaningful difference in how much of that equity you ultimately keep.

Many longtime homeowners are surprised to discover that they have more flexibility than they initially thought when planning a move later in life.

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

Sources:
Internal Revenue Service (Publications 523 & 551); California State Board of Equalization (Propositions 13 & 19 guidance); California Legislative Analyst’s Office; U.S. Census Bureau; California Association of Realtors.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for general educational purposes only and should not be considered tax or legal advice. Tax laws and individual circumstances vary. Readers should consult a qualified tax professional or financial advisor before making decisions based on the information provided.

March 7-8, Weekend Open Homes List.

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.

What I’m seeing in the market this week.

“Where Did All The Houses Go?” was the lead article in our February 27 Monthly Report, and although the number of Open Homes continues to rise week-over-week, the reality is that available inventory for detached homes is down approximately 25% year over year. Click here to read the newsletter.

There’s a caveat though: Not all Inner East Bay cities behave the same. When we look at the Inner East Bay’s big 3 cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond, the 25% YoY inventory decrease affects only Oakland and Richmond. Current Berkeley inventory is a match for last year. Kensington and Albany have higher inventory YoY, while El Cerrito, El Sobrante, Hercules, and Pinole are down.

Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

I have noted last year’s count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6% to 6.5% will be normal for 2026 (better than the past 2 years!!), but newer homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 51%, making the average over the past 2 months 54%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion’s share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

The 2 month chart is approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to emerge. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year.

The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to slow. This is out-of-step with expectations for this time of year especially with the slower pace of new listings to the market (which is also out-of-step with seasonal expectations). The slowdown in inventory could be a direct consequence of property value declines in Oakland and homeowners deciding to wait for the market to pick-up before they consider selling.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk. It could be that the dip in recent inventory in Oakland correlates to the lower sales values - home owners might be reluctant to consider a move with the news that values have come down in many neighborhoods over the past 2 years, and perhaps are postponing a potential sale to a more favorable time.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 324

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 462

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,083,889 (26 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,125,735 (29 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’re routinely seeing property sell for up to $1,400 per sq ft, especially down from the hills in central, north, and northwest Berkeley. The Berkeley market changes in the Very High Fire Hazard Zones in Hills where per sq ft drops precipitously to +/-$800 The speed of sales in Berkeley is unusually fierce. The graph shows a rollercoaster in the past 3 weeks when a rainy week caused a delay in new listings followed by a big week for new inventory and a seeming slowdown in Pendings while buyers jockeyed for position.. Despite volatile rates and economic uncertainty property values have generally been higher in Berkeley in the past few months vs last year.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 65

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 65

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,521,600 (34 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,675,000 (10 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes.

Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year. However, average Days On Market (DOM) for all active detached single family homes in Richmond is currently at 79 days (decreasing over the past several weeks). That means there’s a lot of inventory simply sitting on the market, and much of it is likely negotiable. The gap between Active and Pending is beginning ever so slowly to increase again in line with expectations for this time of year.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 87

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 109

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $725,000 (25 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $731,468 (25 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 78 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 69. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Click here for a Fall 2025 Substack post on why I believed the period between then and March 2026 might represent an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo. Since we’re now in March let’s find out by the end of the month how well my prediction held up!

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in mid-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, March 8. Let’s break it down

Of the 246 single family residential homes that have an open house 2% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the 109 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 5% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 48 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has increased over the past week. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 44. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

On January 8, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was instructing his “Representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities) [via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.]” The idea behind buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is similar in concept to programs the Federal Reserve has used in the past: when a major holder buys MBS, it increases demand, which can lower long-term mortgage rates in theory. The announcement caused rates to drop quickly, to below 6% for the first time in years - but rates have since inched up past 6% due to geopolitical and other concerns.

What drives rates? Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: Rates Rocked (Relatively) By Global Events. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend!

Thinking about buying or selling in the East Bay?

Declan Spring is the lead agent at The Home Factor, a real estate team focused on helping clients navigate Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and surrounding communities.

Learn more at:
thehomefactor.com

Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.

For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we’re happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay.

For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.

“Where Did All The Houses Go?” was the lead article in our February 27 Monthly Report, and although the number of Open Homes continues to rise week-over-week, the reality is that available inventory for detached homes is down approximately 25% year over year. Click here to read the newsletter.

The only exception in the past week is Kensington which doubled in active inventory from 4 to 8 homes.

Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

I have noted last year’s count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6% to 6.5% will be normal for 2026 (better than the past 2 years!!), but newer homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in theLet’s Talk About Mortgage Ratessection further down.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 56%, making the average over the past 2 months 54%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion’s share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. The 2 month chart is approximately in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year, though new listings are slower to emerge. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year.

The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to slowly increase again in line with expectations for this time of year as new listings come to the market at a greater rate than during the December/January hibernation.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk. It could be that the dip in recent value in Oakland correlates to the shrinking inventory - home owners might be reluctant to consider a move with the news that values have come down in many neighborhoods over the past 2 years, and perhaps are postponing a potential sale to a more favorable time.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 324

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 437

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,134,167 (35 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,096,938 (30 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’re routinely seeing property sell for up to $1,400 per sq ft, especially down from the hills in central, north, and northwest Berkeley. The Berkeley market changes in the Very High Fire Hazard Zones in Hills where per sq ft drops precipitously to +/-$800 The speed of sales in Berkeley is unusually fierce and in a wildly unseasonal twist, Active inventory has begun to contract and Pending sales have increased at enormous speed. Despite volatile rates and economic uncertainty property values have generally been higher in Berkeley in the past few months vs last year.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 50

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 63

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,676,000 (16 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,723,000 (13 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year. However, average Days On Market (DOM) for all active detached single family homes in Richmond is currently at 81 days. That means there’s a lot of inventory simply sitting on the market, and much of it is likely negotiable. The gap between Active and Pending is beginning ever so slowly to increase again in line with expectations for this time of year.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 78

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 102

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $682,667 (13 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $655,694 (27 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos is 80 and DOM for townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 65. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Click here for a Fall 2025 Substack post on why I believed the period between then and March 2026 might represent an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo. Since we’re now in March let’s find out by the end of the month how well my prediction held up!

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in mid-April 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, March 1 Let’s break it down:

Of the 224 single family residential homes that have an open house 3% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the 100 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 7% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 is continuing. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 40 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has slowed over the past week. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 41. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

NOTE: Since this week’s actions in the Middle East occurred after the markets closed on Friday, February 27, we will not have the capacity to understand the market impact until Monday, March 2.

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

On January 8, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was instructing his “Representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities) [via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.]” The idea behind buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is similar in concept to programs the Federal Reserve has used in the past: when a major holder buys MBS, it increases demand, which can lower long-term mortgage rates in theory. The announcement caused rates to drop quickly, to below 6% for the first time in years - but rates have since inched up past 6% due to geopolitical and other concerns.

What drives rates? Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: Rates Set An Interesting Record This Week. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.

*The specific cities and districts covered in this market analysis report are Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond, El Sobrante, Pinole, Hercules, and Crockett.

We’re happy to provide a complete list of *all Inner-East Bay open homes for this weekend, please click here.

For Open Homes limited mostly to the Berkeley area, we’re happy to share the ‘Ad Review’. The Ad Review is a private Berkeley publication of open homes. It has a pleasant format but is by no means an exhaustive list of open homes in the Inner-East Bay.

For this week’s Sunday Open Homes ‘Ad Review’ please click here.

The real estate market is firmly into its New Year and the number of open homes has hit a peak with increases expected week-over-week into late April. The highlight in data continues to be our low level of inventory compared to same time last year especially in Oakland and Richmond - Oakland is down 22% from the same week last year and Richmond is down 25% over the same time last year. Berkeley’s Active and Pending sales are almost identical to the same time last year.

Older listings that have been passed over that are now sitting are buyer opportunities for sure - please reach out! As usual, please see below for specific market dynamics in each of our 3 biggest Inner east Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

I have noted last year’s count of active listings below, side-by-side with this year, for each of our 3 largest Inner East Bay Cities to demonstrate the change overall in active inventory this year over last.

For detailed information on cities not highlighted below please reach out to me directly.

Note about Berkeley: Proposed point of sale changes to Berkeley’s BESO point-of-sale ordinance are now in effect. 🎧Click here to listen to a short conversation about the changes. Zone Zero Defensible Space rules are now in effect for Berkeley, with enforcement to roll-out in July 🎧Click here for a conversation with Assistant Berkeley Fire Chief Colin Arnold about the changes.

Pro Tip: Reach out to us to learn about, and to discuss homes that are sitting on the market longer than is healthy for their bottom line and where a deal might exist for you. It’s always a good time of year for deals on property that have not successfully found a buyer within 3 weeks of being on the market.

It’s wise to realize that mortgage interest rates of approx. 6% to 6.5% will be normal for 2026 (better than the past 2 years!!), but newer homeowners can take advantage of falling rates in the coming years by refinancing property. Property values will increase in future years as mortgage interest rates decrease (at some point), and homeowners who have increased their equity with regular monthly payments, and who refi down will see their wealth increase. This is precisely how and why homeowners realize substantially greater wealth than renters in the first decade of ownership. Please read more below in the Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates section further down.

The distribution of listings in Oakland with an open house on Sunday relative to the Inner East Bay as a whole is at 58%, making the average over the past 2 months 54%. I mention this percentage to highlight the sheer geographic size and density of Oakland. The lion’s share of Inner East Bay transactions occur in Oakland.

Let’s look at the market activity for only single family detached homes in our biggest 3 cities in the Inner East Bay: Oakland, Berkeley, and Richmond.

Included below is the average price point for a select type of single family home over the past 2 weeks, compared with this time last year. “DOM” (Days on Market) is also included because it matters. Longer DOM seems to correlate with softer property value YoY.

Here’s the market activity for Oakland over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. The 2 month chart is in line with seasonality and our expectations of the market for this time of year although there are fewer available listings in Oakland this year vs same time last year. Demand in Oakland is generally quite strong with well priced, well located, and well presented properties continuing to move reasonably quickly despite values in general having taken a hit last year.

The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to increase again in line with expectations for this time of year as new listings come to the market at a greater rate than during the December/January hibernation.

There’s terrific variation in trends between neighborhoods with higher value neighborhoods out-performing lower value neighborhoods and the market above $1M is moving with greater ease than the sub-$1M market. Fire insurance is also affecting demand in neighborhoods with greater fire risk. It could be that the dip in recent value in Oakland correlates to the shrinking inventory - home owners might be reluctant to consider a move with the news that values have come down in many neighborhoods over the past 2 years, and perhaps are postponing a potential sale to a more favorable time.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend = 319

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Oakland this weekend in 2025 = 414

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Oakland (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,033,760 (25 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Oakland (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,029,947 (28 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Berkeley over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. Berkeley is clearly a market unto itself and moving differently than Oakland and Richmond. It’s a stronger market in every way. Multiple offers on well priced, well located, and well presented property is an absolute given. We’re routinely seeing property sell for as much as $1,200 per sq ft and up to $1,400, especially down from the hills in central, north, and northwest Berkeley. The speed of sales in Berkeley is fierce and despite volatile rates and economic uncertainty property values have generally been higher in Berkeley in the past few months vs last year. The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to increase again in line with expectations for this time of year as new listings come to the market at a greater rate than during the December/January hibernation, especially in the past 10 days.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend = 57

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Berkeley this weekend in 2025 = 55

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $1,625,000 (14 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Berkeley (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $1,676,667 (16 DOM)

Here’s the market activity for Richmond over the past 2 months for single family detached homes. For most of 2025 there was far more available inventory in Richmond vs the previous year but we’re seeing that trend end at this point in time. Inventory levels are well behind the same time last year. Average Days On Market (DOM) for all active detached single family homes in Richmond is currently at 86 days. That means there’s a lot of inventory simply sitting on the market, and much of it is likely negotiable. The gap between Active and Pending is beginning to increase again in line with expectations for this time of year as new listings come to the market at a greater rate than during the December/January hibernation period.

Active Inventory Now vs Same Time Last Year:

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend = 78

Number of Available Single Family Homes in Richmond this weekend in 2025 = 104

Average Sold Price vs Same Time Last Year:

Avg. Sold Price for Single Family Homes in Richmond (2/2-3/3) past 2 weeks = $707,300 (7 DOM)

Avg. Sold Price for SFH in Richmond (2/2-3/3) same 2 weeks 2025 = $604,000 (20 DOM)

Condos & Townhomes

Days on market for Condos & Townhomes is longer than for Single Family Homes by quite a bit. The average days on market (DOM) for condos and townhouses in the Inner East Bay is currently 77 days. Average Days on Market for condos in the past month has exceeded 90 days at times so I’m pleased to see the number begin to lower. Cancellations are a factor too though, and once listings hit about 90 DOM they begin to cancel. More information on cancellations is available below.

It’s a great time to shop for a condo or townhouse in almost any part of the Inner East Bay. Most real estate agents will tell you that in a market downturn, condos and townhouses are the last residential property category to recover. Single family homes tend historically to recover value more quickly following a market downturn. Click here for a recent Substack post on why I believe the period between now and March 2026 represents an opportune time to purchase an Inner East Bay condo.

What are the causes shaping the problematic condo market in recent years?

I dropped a podcast episode in May 2025 dealing specifically with the Inner East Bay condo market. The content remains relevant to this day and we will record a podcast update on the same topic in mid-March 2026 🎧Click here to listen.

Open Homes for Sunday, February 22 Let’s break it down:

Of the 192 single family residential homes that have an open house 2% had a price adjustment. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance, click here to see it. Price adjusted property represents an opportunity and so do canceled listings. See below for more information on cancellations.

Of the 93 condos/townhouses that have an open house, 3% had price adjustment in the past week. Click here for the list of price adjusted listings. In all parts of the Inner East Bay condos have lost value, a downward trend that started mid-2024 and was especially painful in 2025. The list of price adjusted property is always worth a glance. There are significant opportunities in the current condo market in most East Bay cities for potential buyers, and despite getting a bad rap they can be the perfect solution and investment when properly investigated.

Listings canceled from the Multiple Listing Service in the past 7 days

Cancellations are on the low side at this time of year, consistent with historical data.

Cancellations reveal that sellers are pulling underperforming listings from the market, if they can afford to, in favor of possibly re-listing them perhaps later in the year, or, in some cases, renting them. Cancellations are also an opportunity for buyers because the sellers may still be open to offers, although it’s not unusual for these sellers to have unrealistic expectations. The list is worth reviewing. Click here for a full list from over the past 1 week.

Coming Soon

Click here for a list of 40 East Bay* properties listed as Coming Soon, the number has slowed over the past week. Only a small number of properties are actively marketed as Coming Soon to test the market. The average number of Coming Soon’s for the past 4 weeks is 41. ‘Coming Soon’ listings are hidden from consumer searches of public sites but they are mostly available to view by appointment. Please reach out to us if any of them seem interesting or noteworthy.

Let’s Talk About Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae forecast in a press release on September 23 that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would end at 6.4% in 2025 and at 5.9% in 2026. This is generally in line with a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association in late October that rates in 2026 would remain between 6% to 6.5%.

On January 8, 2026, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was instructing his “Representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities) [via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.]” The idea behind buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is similar in concept to programs the Federal Reserve has used in the past: when a major holder buys MBS, it increases demand, which can lower long-term mortgage rates in theory. The announcement caused rates to drop quickly, to below 6% for the first time in years - but rates have since inched up past 6% due to geopolitical and other concerns.

What drives rates? Here’s how it works: Federal Reserve rate cuts do not directly correlate to reduced mortgage interest rates. As more seasoned mortgage rate watchers know, a better way to understand the direction of mortgage rates is to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. Same direction trend: When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves down, average interest rates—especially for things like mortgages, business loans, and other long-term borrowing—tend to move down as well. 10-year yield ↓ → borrowing rates generally ↓ also. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, serving as a benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator of investor sentiment about economic conditions. Caveat: The bond market behaved outside of normal in 2025 due to government policy, and 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion+ to the deficit. The effects on the bond market remain to be seen in the fullness of time.

For those of you who want a deeper dive into the mortgage rate environment I have a couple of podcast suggestions for you:

1. Most recently (Feb 6, 2026) I dropped a podcast with Brady Thomas, owner of LaSalle Mortgage to discuss how obsessing over rate shopping can be a costly distraction. Brady cuts through mortgage-rate myths, explains what actually drives rates, and why lender credibility with listing agents often matters more than a teaser quote. The episode offers a clear case for preparation and positioning as the market recalibrates toward 2026.🎧Click here to listen to “Why Rate Shopping Might Be A Bum Steer: Real Lending Insights From Brady Thomas”.

2. I sat down on September 19, 2025, to podcast with mortgage advisor Evelyn Freitas, to get her take on the September 17 Fed rate cut and to dissect how the Federal Reserve Board of Governors operates, what’s influencing it now, and how administration pressure may influence it in the next 1 to 2 years. 🎧Click here to listen to “Navigating the September 17 Fed Rate Cut”.

I also find this weekly newsletter from Faramarz-Moeen-Ziai extremely useful. Bottom line in the newsletter this week: Rates at 3-Year Lows Despite Market Volatility After Tariff Ruling. To hear Faramarz speak in his own words about 2025’s Big Beautiful Bill, 🎧Click here to listen to “Bonds, Bills, and BS: The Truth About Your Mortgage Rate”.

That’s the wrap up for this weekend! Please don’t hesitate to reach out for custom information. We’re always happy to provide it. Best way to reach us is at declan@thehomefactor.com

Declan Spring is a licensed CA REALTOR® DRE#01398898

Just a reminder, there are some truly gorgeous houses out there to visit this weekend. You may also want to share this weekly deep dive with friends or family in the east bay who might appreciate the opportunity to visit the beautiful open homes on offer, or who, better still, might truly appreciate the consistent care and effort The Home Factor takes with interpreting the real estate market data in the east bay each week.