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. 2012 Feb 23;8(1):123-6.
doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2011.0210. Epub 2011 Apr 20.

A refined modelling approach to assess the influence of sampling on palaeobiodiversity curves: new support for declining Cretaceous dinosaur richness

Graeme T Lloyd  1
Affiliations

A refined modelling approach to assess the influence of sampling on palaeobiodiversity curves: new support for declining Cretaceous dinosaur richness

Graeme T Lloyd. Biol Lett. .

Abstract

Modelling has been underdeveloped with respect to constructing palaeobiodiversity curves, but it offers an additional tool for removing sampling from their estimation. Here, an alternative to subsampling approaches, which often require large sample sizes, is explored by the extension and refinement of a pre-existing modelling technique that uses a geological proxy for sampling. Application of the model to the three main clades of dinosaurs suggests that much of their diversity fluctuations cannot be explained by sampling alone. Furthermore, there is new support for a long-term decline in their diversity leading up to the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction event. At present, use of this method with data that includes either Lagerstätten or 'Pull of the Recent' biases is inappropriate, although partial solutions are offered.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Time series of residuals (grey polygon) from a modelling approach that assumes true taxonomic richness is constant and apparent richness is driven purely by sampling. Dinosaur data from Barrett et al. [4] for (a) sauropodomorphs, (b) ornithischians and (c) theropods. Dashed line indicates 1.96 standard errors and dashed–dotted line 1.96 standard deviations of the model. Solid lines with closed circles (hinge points) in (a) and (b) are the results of a MARS analysis [6]. Geological epoch abbreviations are as follows: MTr, Middle Triassic; LTr, Late Triassic; EJ, Early Jurassic; MJ, Middle Jurassic; LJ, Late Jurassic; EK, Early Cretaceous and LK, Late Cretaceous.
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