MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2026-08-23. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | |
| NL | Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | Philadelphia Phillies | San Diego Padres | |
| AL | Tampa Bay Rays | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | |
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | Bye | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.6 | 0.0 | 76 | 55 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 92.4 | 69.6 | 97-65 | 88-74 | 98.6% | 22.8% | 75.8% | 15.2% | 58.2% | 26.7% | 12.7% | 6.4% | +0.3% | -1.2% | -0.6% | ||||||
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.8 | 0.1 | 73 | 58 | 16.8 | 14.2 | 89.8 | 72.2 | 94-68 | 85-77 | 92.5% | 68.4% | 24.1% | 2.0% | 49.5% | 23.3% | 11.3% | 6.2% | +0.7% | +24.5% | +37.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.4 | 67 | 64 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 82.2 | 79.8 | 87-75 | 78-84 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | -0.1% | -7.3% | -11.6% | ||||||
| 4 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.1 | 61 | 71 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 76.2 | 85.8 | 81-81 | 72-90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | -1.7% | -21.4% | ||||||
| 5 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.1 | 59 | 72 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 74.5 | 87.5 | 79-83 | 70-92 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | ||||||
| NL Central | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 1.2 | 0.0 | 81 | 50 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 99.0 | 63.0 | 103-59 | 94-68 | >99.9% | 4.0% | 96.0% | 92.4% | 96.8% | 56.5% | 32.6% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.7 | 0.4 | 75 | 56 | 16.2 | 14.8 | 91.2 | 70.8 | 96-66 | 87-75 | 96.8% | 92.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 51.4% | 23.8% | 11.2% | 5.9% | +0.9% | +0.2% | +10.5% | ||||||
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.1 | 0.1 | 66 | 66 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 81.0 | 81.0 | 86-76 | 77-85 | 2.7% | 2.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -3.6% | -13.7% | -17.5% | ||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | 0.2 | 0.1 | 63 | 69 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 78.2 | 83.8 | 83-79 | 74-88 | 0.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.4% | -1.1% | -38.5% | ||||||
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.8 | 0.4 | 62 | 69 | 12.5 | 18.5 | 74.5 | 87.5 | 79-83 | 70-92 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.6% | ||||||
| NL West | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.9 | 0.0 | 80 | 51 | 17.6 | 13.4 | 97.6 | 64.4 | 102-60 | 93-69 | >99.9% | 0.4% | 99.6% | 86.9% | 94.0% | 49.3% | 24.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | +0.1% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.2 | 0.0 | 71 | 60 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 86.8 | 75.2 | 91-71 | 82-80 | 63.6% | 63.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 28.6% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 2.0% | +3.5% | +14.3% | +54.3% | ||||||
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | 0.2 | -0.1 | 69 | 62 | 16.2 | 14.8 | 85.2 | 76.8 | 90-72 | 81-81 | 37.3% | 37.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | -1.2% | -14.0% | -12.1% | ||||||
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -0.6 | 0.1 | 52 | 78 | 14.4 | 17.6 | 66.4 | 95.6 | 71-91 | 62-100 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.1 | 0.2 | 50 | 80 | 13.6 | 18.4 | 63.6 | 98.4 | 68-94 | 59-103 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | Bye | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.1 | 77 | 53 | 16.5 | 15.6 | 93.5 | 68.6 | 98-64 | 89-73 | >99.9% | 36.7% | 63.3% | 63.3% | 79.5% | 43.7% | 19.8% | 8.5% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.8% | ||||||
| 2 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.6 | -0.1 | 74 | 56 | 17.5 | 14.5 | 91.5 | 70.5 | 96-66 | 87-75 | >99.9% | 75.4% | 24.6% | 24.6% | 60.4% | 34.0% | 18.1% | 8.3% | +0.1% | +0.5% | +1.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 1.0 | -0.1 | 71 | 59 | 18.6 | 13.4 | 89.6 | 72.4 | 94-68 | 85-77 | 99.6% | 87.5% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 60.4% | 36.0% | 22.1% | 11.8% | +0.2% | +1.8% | +18.6% | ||||||
| 4 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.1 | -0.6 | 64 | 68 | 15.9 | 14.1 | 79.9 | 82.1 | 84-78 | 75-87 | 27.9% | 27.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | -5.6% | +6.1% | +25.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | -0.2 | 0.0 | 63 | 68 | 14.8 | 16.2 | 77.8 | 84.2 | 82-80 | 73-89 | 9.0% | 9.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | -3.1% | -12.1% | -6.0% | ||||||
| AL Central | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | 0.7 | -0.3 | 68 | 62 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 90-72 | 81-81 | 95.0% | 7.5% | 87.5% | 81.7% | 89.4% | 43.0% | 23.8% | 11.1% | +2.9% | +0.0% | +12.9% | ||||||
| 2 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.0 | -0.2 | 65 | 66 | 15.9 | 15.1 | 80.9 | 81.1 | 85-77 | 76-86 | 41.0% | 32.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 25.5% | 10.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% | +10.3% | +25.2% | -20.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | 0.5 | 0.1 | 61 | 69 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 82-80 | 73-89 | 8.9% | 7.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | -3.2% | -23.8% | -16.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | -0.5 | -0.3 | 63 | 68 | 14.7 | 16.3 | 77.7 | 84.3 | 82-80 | 73-89 | 10.8% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | -1.7% | +2.1% | -10.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -0.8 | 0.2 | 58 | 74 | 13.2 | 16.8 | 71.2 | 90.8 | 76-86 | 67-95 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | -0.4 | 0.0 | 65 | 66 | 14.7 | 16.3 | 79.7 | 82.3 | 84-78 | 75-87 | 53.7% | 2.5% | 51.2% | 5.5% | 28.1% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% | -2.8% | -17.1% | +25.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.7 | 0.1 | 65 | 66 | 13.8 | 17.2 | 78.8 | 83.2 | 83-79 | 74-88 | 35.1% | 3.9% | 31.2% | 2.0% | 16.1% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | +10.6% | +19.7% | -9.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | -0.7 | -0.4 | 62 | 69 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 77.2 | 84.8 | 82-80 | 73-89 | 19.1% | 1.5% | 17.6% | 0.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | -7.8% | -2.7% | -22.6% | ||||||
| 4 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -0.8 | 0.0 | 52 | 79 | 13.7 | 17.3 | 65.7 | 96.3 | 70-92 | 61-101 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Athletics | AL | W | -1.8 | -0.3 | 51 | 80 | 13.1 | 17.9 | 64.1 | 97.9 | 69-93 | 60-102 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% | ||||||
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